“But What if I Don’t Take the Medicine and I Catch the Disease?”

I was at my 40th high school reunion this past weekend. A bunch of old friends of mine and I were sitting around a kitchen table discussing our health.

We’re almost 60 after all - that’s what older people do. Trust me. I see it every day.

Anyway. The talk turned to shingles. People talked about either themselves or one of their family members had shingles and it was awful. I’ve heard that.

Naturally the next subject was the shingles vaccine. Opinions were mixed on vaccine efficacy. Then the person who brought up the vaccine said:

“But what if I don’t take the vaccine and I contract shingles?”

Someone else jumped in and said:

“Well my Dad did take the shingles vaccine and still contracted shingles.”

It didn’t phase the first guy. He kept talking about cutting down risks and:

“What’s the downside?”

Well there’s always this:

That’s what I see in the medical profession. It’s a lot different from manufacturing where I spent a large part of my working life.

In manufacturing your part has to work as intended when it leaves the plant. There are specifications and tests you do on the parts to make sure they function as intended. If it doesn’t work, it’s reworked or scrapped.

Medicine is more like weather forecasting. When a weatherman tells you there’s a 30% chance of rain, he’s right no matter what happens.

How do you tell if it was supposed to be 50% or 70%? What does it matter? It either rains or it doesn’t.

Same with health care. Studies will conclude some drug was effective because 30% of the study participants showed some improvement.

When that drug hits the market, some people may seem some improvement. Others don’t see anything.

Now I’m not trying to knock weatherman or medical professionals. They are dealing with very unpredictable professions. In manufacturing aluminum or steel will act the same every time. The weather and human bodies can be very unpredictable.

For all medications, there are three possible outcomes:

1. Your condition improves

2. Nothing happens

3. You suffer side effects that makes your condition worse

Same can be said for some foods - especially if you have an allergic reaction. Although usually the potential downsides are not as bad as medicine.

What I’m trying to say is not to automatically accept a medication or therapy. If you don’t take a medication, sometimes your percent chances of improving are not much worse than if you do take it.

And what are those percentages? Just because they had 30% of people in a study improve, doesn’t mean you have a 30% chance. Again, how would you measure that?

Do your research. Discuss with people you trust. Then make a calculated decision. Don’t let the white lab coat look of authority bully or guilt trip you into a decision.

Often his forecast is even worse than the weather man.